Real Report: A Framework for the 2026 Housing Market

Last week, I shared my 2026 market outlook through The Real Report. I thought you might want to take a look too.

This isn’t a hype piece or a bold “hot take.” It’s more of a framework for thinking about where we are in the cycle and what that means heading into next year, especially here in San Diego.

So, here goes the short version:

Between 2020 and 2022, we compressed about seven years of appreciation into two. Since early 2023, we haven’t been crashing, we’ve been slowly working our way back to the mean. That process is quiet, frustrating at times, and easy to misread if you’re only looking at headlines.

One of the biggest takeaways from the report is the difference between nominal prices and real values. Prices can appear flat or even slightly up, while real purchasing power is still drifting lower once inflation is backed out. That distinction matters a lot for how you advise clients, price property, and think about timing.

In the full write-up, I cover:

• Why Q1 and Q2 of 2026 could still feel solid
• Why the back half of the year likely looks more like 2025
• Where attached housing continues to struggle
• How I’m thinking about mortgage rates longer term
• And why California may start to diverge more clearly from the rest of the country

The full breakdown? You can read it here.

And if you want local and macro market updates regularly, you can subscribe as well.

Please note that this isn’t about predicting the future perfectly. It’s about understanding the environment well enough to make smart, grounded decisions. In other words, take what’s useful, question the rest, and make the call that’s right for you and your clients.